Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. VIST is set to release first-quarter results on Apr 25. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter is a profit of $1.01 per share on revenues of $301.6 million.
Let’s delve into the factors that might have influenced the Mexico-based energy firm’s results in the September quarter. But it’s worth taking a look at Vista’s previous-quarter performance first.
Highlights of Q4 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Argentina-focused company missed the consensus mark due to higher costs. Vista had reported earnings per share of 76 cents, which came in below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 93 cents. Revenues of $308.1 million generated by the firm had also come in 2.4% below the consensus mark, dragged down by lower NGL production and prices.
VIST beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings twice in the last four quarters and missed in the other two, resulting in an earnings surprise of 37.9%, on average. This is depicted in the graph below:
Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. Sponsored ADR Price and EPS Surprise
Trend in Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained the same in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates a 531.3% jump year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues, meanwhile, suggests a 45.1% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider
Vista is expected to have benefited from the stability in crude realizations. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the company’s average realized oil price increased by 14% from the year-ago period. The uptick is most likely to have continued in the first quarter, with commodity prices remaining robust on the back of geopolitical tensions, strained supply and solid demand. This price boost is likely to have buoyed the revenues and cash flows of Vista.
The company is also expected to have reaped the reward of higher production during the quarter. VIST continues to churn out an impressive output from its assets in southwest Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin, where it focuses on growth through a combination of acquisitions and active drilling. In the previous quarter, VIST’s total output was up 33% year over year over year. The uptick is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter on the back of higher productivity from the company’s flagship Bajada del Palo Oeste region.
On a somewhat bearish note, Vista’s operating expenses in the October-December increased around 19% year over year to $36.1 million. The upward cost trajectory is likely to have continued in the first quarter of 2023 due to higher product costs and inflationary pressure. This is expected to have somewhat dented the company’s to-be-reported earnings.
What Does Our Model Say?
The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show that Vista is likely to beat estimates in the first quarter. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of beating estimates. But that’s not the case here.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: Vista Oil & Gas has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are pegged at $1.01 per share each.
Zacks Rank: VIST currently carries a Zacks Rank #2, which increases the predictive power of ESP. However, the company’s 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult this earnings season.
Stocks to Consider
While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Vista, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:
Marathon Petroleum MPC has an Earnings ESP of +11.24% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 2.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MPC’s 2023 earnings has been revised 15.3% upward over the past 60 days. Valued at around $57.5 billion, Marathon Petroleum has gained 39.2% in a year.
Murphy Oil MUR has an Earnings ESP of +12.67% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on May 3.
For 2023, Murphy Oil has a projected earnings growth rate of 4.7%. Valued at around $6.1 billion, MUR has lost 12.7% in a year.
TechnipFMC FTI has an Earnings ESP of +3.71% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Apr 27.
For 2023, TechnipFMC has a projected earnings growth rate of 1,766.7%. Valued at around $5.9 billion, FTI has gained 52% in a year.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.